By Andy Lack

Welcome! My name is Andy Lack, host of the Inside Golf Podcast, a twice weekly golf betting and DraftKings show. I also co-host the Scramble live every Tuesdays and Fridays at 12:00 PM ET with Rick. If you are more into written content, I posted a detailed course breakdown of Innisbrook on Monday, and I will continue that every week with each PGA Tour stop.

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week (or after the tournament starts, in the case of Friday’s Scramble) is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently.

This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather. With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days.

Also, weather MATTERS. In three recent tournaments, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and of course, the PLAYERS Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough of a sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 12-20 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 16-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to Single Entry and 3-Max. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather: 

For the first time in what feels like forever, we don’t really have to worry about the weather giving certain players an advantage. Tee times are completely spread for the group stage rounds across Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, and wind gusts are pretty consistent across the board. Wednesday will see consistent wind gusts between between 17 and 23 mph, peaking between 7:00 and 10:00 AM. Thursday is supposed to even windier, with gusts between 24 and 28 mph consistently throughout the day. Friday is expected to be extremely calm, with wind gusts peaking at 6 mph. The only point about the weather I would make is that with 17-28 mph gusts across Wednesday and Thursday, this course will play tough. Austin Country Club is walk in the park in benign conditions, but any course with gusts upto 28 mph is a challenge. I’m not sure if windier conditions would make you want to adjust your pool to include players who have thrived in more difficult scoring conditions, but I thought it was worth mentioning.

Strategy: 

Rick already did an excellent job breaking down strategy this week in his DFS preview, so I will not belabor the point. I have a strong sense that anyone taking the time to read this already understands the importance of building lineups optimally this week. Just to recap, I would only recommend deploying multiple players from the same group in your lineup if you are playing in a cash game. To win a GPP this week, you will need to have a lineup with one player from each of the four quadrants to give yourself a chance at a 4/4 final four. Yet in my opinion, it’s really about giving yourself an opportunity to get 6/8 in the quarter-finals. Each group has four players, each pod has eight players, and each quadrant has 16 players. Every single one of my lineups this week will have a player from a different pod, presenting me with the opportunity for all six of my players to advance to the quarter-finals.

An “optimal lineup” would consistent of only one player from six of the eight pods, while still having one player from each of quadrant. This “optimal lineup” would provide you with the opportunity to have 6/8 in the quarter-finals, and 4/4 in the semi-finals. Every single one of my 8 lineups this week check that box, and I have used a player pool of only 16 players, with one from each group.

Core 4: My four strongest plays of the week that I will be the most overweight on relative to the field

• Jon Rahm, $11,300 (Group 1, Pod 1, Quadrant 1) (Projected ownership: 19.4%)
  • For the second tournament in a row, I will be extremely over-exposed to Jon Rahm. I just think that what he’s doing off the tee right now is at a bit of a different level than anyone else, and I am not under the belief system that his short game or putting is “broken.” I’m not sure that I see a super elite player winning this week, but of the 10K range, I do believe Rahm is the most likely champion. I don’t have a ton of concern about his group. I seem to be a lot lower on Cameron Young than market, and with all the questions surrounding Bryson, I actually think he has a relatively easy path to the semi-finals.

 

• Matt Fitzpatrick, $8,700 (Group 5, Pod 5, Quadrant 4) (Projected ownership: 7.5%)
  • I have been playing Matthew Fitzpatrick every week for the past couple of months, and I see no reason to stop at low ownership. I currently have Scottie Scheffler as the highest owned golfer on the slate, so it appears that everyone is just penciling him in to come out of group five. I’m a little more skeptical. Fitzpatrick is playing at an extremely high level right now, and I think he’s an excellent pivot off the Scheffler chalk in group five.

 

• Russell Henley, $7,900 (Group 14, Pod 3, Quadrant 3) (Projected ownership: 12.4%)
  • 12% ownership might be a little low for Henley if we are being honest, but I still think enough people will be so high on Viktor Hovland and Will Zalatoris coming out of that pod that Henley’s ownership will be somewhat manageable. I usually avoid buzzy 7K golfers, but there is too much to love about Henley for me to pass up. He rated out as the fourth overall golfer for me statistically, right behind Justin Thomas, Rahm, and Hovland. He’s experienced loads of success already on shorter, positional golf courses, and I do believe he’s good enough to win this type of event.

 

• Corey Conners, $7,300 (Group 10, Pod 7, Quadrant 2) (Projected ownership: 8.2%)
  • Alex Noren is certainly the trendy pick to advance out of group 10, but I’ll roll the dice with Corey Conners at $500 dollars cheaper and lower ownership instead. We were betting Corey Conners at short, positional golf courses at 28/1 earlier this year, and while his price reflects that he’s not that guy right now, I still believe in the upside. The Canadian is coming off a 26th at the Players where he gained strokes in all four major categories, and he’s actually experienced a ton of success putting on these over-seeded greens. I believe that group 10 is wide open, and Conners presents far and away the most value.

 

Chalk Report (Disclaimer: Ownership projections are a little wonky this week): While this is one of the few weeks of the year where lineup construction is arguably more important than ownership, here’s my guess on how ownership will shake out.

• 10K
  • I believe that Scottie Scheffler will be the highest owned golfer on the slate. Now I could be dead off on that, but I think the combination of a soft group, recent form, and the fact that he made it to the finals here last year are all working in the University of Texas product’s favor. He won’t push anything crazy like 30%, but I would not be surprised to see him come in at 25%. Rahm, JT, Hovland, and Cantlay should all come in between 15-23%, and I believe that Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson will be the lowest owned players above 10K. I’m playing Rahm and DJ.

 

• 9K
  • Xander Schauffele will be mega-chalk, and in my opinion, it’s chalk worth eating. His group is really week, and I do believe he’s a pretty safe bet to advance to the knockout stage. Once we get past Schauffele, I actually think ownership will be pretty spread out in this range. If I had to guess, Berger will be the only other player above 15%, and Brooks, Bryson, Hatton, and Casey will all fall somewhere in between 7-14%. I’m playing Xander, and I’ll roll the dice with a sub 10% 9.3K Bryson as well.

 

• 8K
  • Sergio will be very highly owned. How highly owned remains to be seen, but I would not be shocked if he pushes 20%. People seem to be down on Morikawa and Kokrak this week, and while Robert MacIntyre will be a trendy pick, I still believe most will advance Sergio out of group 2. Zalatoris and Shane Lowry will also be above 12%. Lowry is playing superb golf, and people love playing Zalatoris, especially in Texas. Outside of those three however, I don’t really think you have to worry about anyone else. Maybe Horschel makes a late push because he has a soft group, but it seems like everyone is penciling in Tom Hoge to best him. Fleetwood, Adam Scott, Sungjae, Niemann, Fitzpatrick, and Spieth all should fall somewhere between 6-12%. I’m playing Sergio, Fitzpatrick, and Scott.

 

• 7K
  • I would expect Alex Noren, Russell Henley, Max Homa, Cameron Young, and Talor Gooch to garner the most ownership in this range. I don’t think any one of those players will be unplayable. 16% feels like a fair ceiling with how many other viable options surround them. If you have the cahones, Finau might be 1%. I played him at the PLAYERS, and he was 1% in some contests that week, so I can only imagine how low he will be at this event. I almost got there with Ancer, who I think is a really nice pivot off Henley and Noren, but I’m going to roll with Webb Simpson to advance out of group 15 instead. Both Ancer and Webb will be sub 8%, and in my opinion, both are better group 15 options than the more highly owned Bubba and Harman. Patrick Reed is also a nice leverage play at sub 5%, but I wasn’t able to get there with how heavy I am on Rahm. Henley, Leishman, Simpson, Conners, and Si Woo are the guys for me in this range, and Henley is the only one of that group that will push double digits ownership.

 

• 6K
  • Tom Hoge might get scary. He’s currently in my player pool, but I was bummed to see that he might push 15% as a 6K golfer. I can eat it because I have a lot of unique builds that leave money on the table and feature a lot of Bryson and Fitzpatrick (pray for me), but I would be leery of Hoge if you are also playing many of the aforementioned highly owned golfers. Outside of Hoge, maybe Ian Poulter pushes 10%? I wouldn’t worry too much about it though. People will play Keegan and Luke List, and I do think that Justin Rose will get some love just on the sole premise that 6.9K is such a jarring price tag for a player with his name value. Other than that, swing away down here. I’m playing Hoge, Seamus Power, and EVR.

 

Final Player Pool (Ranked by price)

1. Jon Rahm, $11,300 (Group 1, Pod 8) (Projected ownership: 19.4%)
2. Dustin Johnson, $10,00 (Group 8, Pod 8) (Projected ownership: 11.6%)
3. Xander Schauffele, $9,600 (Group 7, Pod 7) (Projected ownership: 24.0%)
4. Bryson DeChambeau, $9,300 (Group 9, Pod 8) (Projected ownership: 8.9%)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick, $8,700 (Group 5, Pod 5) (Projected ownership: 7.5%)
6. Will Zalatoris, $8,600 (Group 3, Pod 3) (Projected ownership: 13.1%)
7. Sergio Garcia, $8,300 (Group 2, Pod 2) (Projected ownership: 20.7%)
8. Adam Scott, $8,100 (Group 11, Pod 6) (Projected ownership: 8.7%)
9. Russell Henley, $7,900 (Group 14, Pod 3) (Projected ownership: 12.4%)
10. Marc Leishman, $7,500 (Group 6, Pod 6) (Projected ownership: 7.1%)
11. Webb Simpson, $7,400 (Group 15, Pod 2) (Projected ownership: 5.1%)
12. Corey Conners, $7,300 (Group 10, Pod 7) (Projected ownership: 8.2%)
13. Si Woo Kim, $7,100 (Group 13, Pod 4) (Projected ownership: 6.1%)
14. Tom Hoge, $6,800 (Group 12, Pod 5) (Projected ownership: 17.6%)
15. Seamus Power, $6,700 (Group 4, Pod 4) (Projected ownership: 4.1%)
16. Erik Van Rooyen, $6,500 (Group 16, Pod 1) (Projected ownership: 4.5%)