For the first time in nearly seven months, we got to watch Tiger Woods hit a competitive golf shot last week. Your mileage may vary on competitive. I am ostensibly referring to his appearance at the Hero World Challenge, Tiger’s own hit and giggle in the Bahamas that somehow catapulted the 15-time major champion up the Official World Golf Rankings!
We can copy and paste this analysis to nearly every scenario involving Tiger Woods over the last few years, but his performance at the Hero was a bit of a Rorschach test. Those preferring optimism can point to the fact that he ranked top-five (in a 20 player field) in strokes gained off the tee, one of Woods’ greatest bugaboos in the latter stages of his career. In fact, this was the best we’ve seen Tiger drive the ball since the 2020 Farmer’s Insurance Open, right before the world shut down for the COVID-19 pandemic. Woods has gained strokes off the tee just twice in 13 professional starts since COVID. If a bulkier (particularly in the upper body) version of Woods has finally cracked the code to becoming an elite driver in his late forties, he’s pursuing a fairly sustainable pathway to success in modern competitive golf.
Now for the pessimism. Woods ranked in the bottom five strokes gained putting, around the green, and dead last in approach. Iron play has always been the strongest aspect of Woods’ game, even in his mid to late forties. His most complete performance of the last three years came at the 2023 Genesis Invitational, where his 3.2 strokes on approach carried him to a 45th-place finish. Tiger re-gaining any semblance of confidence with his greatest weapon is paramount. This has always been the strongest tool in his arsenal. The path forward is narrow without this aspect of his game firing on all cylinders, to say the least.
As for the short game and putting, the truth of the matter is that Tiger hasn’t been able to rely on either of those aspects of his game since 2019. In his 13 post COVID starts, Woods has gained strokes around the green just three times, and strokes putting just three times as well. Conventional wisdom suggests that a litany of physical ailments would restrict Woods from spending hours in the Florida heat beating range balls at Medalist. One would think that optimizing from 50 yards and in would be a more productive allocation of his diminishing body. There’s still room for massive growth in both short game areas for Woods, and while those still remain the least sustainable ways to win golf tournaments, he’s undeniably leaving a lot on the table if these are the weakest aspects of his game.
Since the injuries began to mount a decade ago, whether Woods’ body could hold up over the course of 72 holes has been just as much of a concern as his ability to score. Again, your mileage may vary on this, but Woods’ gate looked fine at the Hero. He was sweating profusely, which brought a few less serious voices to question if the bulking menace was getting some assistance from PEDs. In fairness to those accusations, Woods’ upper body did look enormous, even by his standards. Metabolism also slows down with age though, especially as one creeps towards the big five-oh. Physical fitness and strength training has always played a major role in Woods’ life. It’s entirely possible that the gym rat in him will never die, but our bodies change as we get older. Woods will never be shredded again.
If we assume that Woods’ body can hold up over the course of a few 72 hole tournaments this year (a big if), is there any actual roadmap to the 15-time major winning contending in a serious way? We should probably start with where that would be. Woods mentioned at the Hero that “a tournament a month was realistic.” Let’s operate under the assumption that he means the regular PGA Tour season, which runs from January through August. I certainly don’t envision a universe where Woods joins the mules in the FedEx Cup Fall, even if his game may be more tailored to those types of golf courses at this stage of his career.
Let’s start with January. The Farmer’s Insurance Open at Torrey Pines appears the only viable option, although that would not be my choice if I was tasked with picking the best golf courses for his now diminished skill-set. Waialae is one of the few courses on the schedule I legitimately believe Woods could compete at. Why he would prefer hacking out of Kikuyu rough on a 7,500 yard golf courses in cooler temperatures over a wedge fest in Hawaii is baffling, but I suppose he’s earned our benefit of the doubt. Woods still seems seems to believe that the golf courses he should be playing now are the ones he succeeded at in the mid 2000s. From a skill-set perspective, that could not be further the truth.
The obvious answer for February is the Genesis Invitational, although I would have loved to see him at Pebble Beach. Riviera remains Woods’ Great White Buffalo, the only iconic Tour stop that he’s never claimed victory at. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t imagine that changes anytime soon. March is more interesting. The Players feels the most sensible option, but I could see him paying homage to Arnie one last time at Bay Hill. Still, a choice of Bay Hill over TPC Sawgrass would be indicative of a player stuck in 2006. TPC Sawgrass is a far better fit for this iteration of the 82-time winner.
April is Masters month, and I wouldn’t get my hopes up here either. The Masters certainly provides Woods with his most realistic opportunity to make a cut, but I would be weary of his chances to contend. The operative word in any Woods discourse going forward is flat, which Augusta is certainly not. We watched his body break down unceremoniously there last year, and while I’m still optimistic he can put two rounds together at the iconic venue, four feels like a huge ask.
We can get this out of the way now. Woods doesn’t stand a chance at Valhalla. Yes, I am aware that he won here 24 years ago, and yes, the Nicklaus design is an easier walk than Augusta. Still, Valhalla will have the narrowest fairways and thickest rough of all four major venues in 2024, with a set-up not dissimilar to what we saw last year at Oak Hill. This goes for Torrey Pines and Bay Hill as well, but It’s hard to envision Woods competing on a golf course that requires that much physical strain on his wrists. This version of Tiger needs width and flatness, which brings us to Pinehurst. In theory, Pinehurst is on the more suitable end of the spectrum for Tiger as far as U.S. Open venues go. Sandy waste areas will be easier on his wrists than thick rough, and the North Carolina venue should see warm temperatures and is far from an over-imposing walk. It’s still the U.S. Open though, a tournament that Woods has not contended at since… 2010.
July brings the Open Championship, a tournament near and dear to Woods’ heart. 2022 was a beautiful send-off at the 150th Open at St. Andrew’s, but if healthy, he’s experienced some success at this event in his forties. The Open remains the least distance dependent major (although Woods may have just proven that power off the tee is far from his greatest issue at the moment), and it’s generally the major that requires the most craft and guile. Woods is still cerebral enough to win an Open Championship, but we saw fairly extreme conditions at Royal Troon in 2016. As is the case with all Open prognostications, I’ll get back to you when we get a 10 day weather report. As for August, I don’t see Woods qualifying for the playoffs or capping off his season with a visit to Greensboro, North Carolina. The buck stops here.
In the interest of predictions, Woods likely possesses the widest range of outcomes in all of golf. His first shot of 2024 could be his last, and we may also see him… win a major? The second part of that sentence is tongue in cheek, but I certainly have affection for the “never count him out” crowd. I’m willing to dream too, but subjecting myself to Rory McIlroy fandom is often painful enough. I’ll abstain from idealism. Made cuts at Augusta and TPC Sawgrass (if he plays) feel like rational prognostication. I’d be willing to stick my neck out with a made cut at Pinehurst too, and even Troon, if weather allows.
In a completely dystopian and fractured golf world, is Tiger optimism that only thing that purists have left? Tiger brought such unadulterated joy to golf fans far before the sport was controlled by a foreign monarchy, and he’s equally responsible for the financial boom that golf has seen in the years since. No, he’s not culpable for an irrational actor mucking up the ecosystem and conflating the game’s best players with dreams of $500 million paychecks, creating a trickle down effect that even piques the mules as well! Yet Tiger still occupies the last semblance of sentimantality in professional golf. The unintentional debris of a bygone era, somehow in charge of picking up the pieces. Let’s enjoy it while we can.
