By Andy Lack

The 2023 World Wide Technologies Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’ve been monitoring the weather all week, as this is a golf course that is very exposed to the wind and play dramatically different in more difficult weather conditions. Unfortunately, I’m not seeing a thing. I would expect scores to be low. And I mean really low.

Core Four

• Stephan Jaeger, $10,200 (Projected ownership: 14.4%): I’ve become a bit of a Stephan Jaeger apologist over the back half of 2023. My numbers seem to continually suggest that the German is a better player than his results would indicate, and that he is on the precipice of something great. Before we get into the ownership argument, it’s important to touch on why my numbers continue to believe in his talent, specifically on this golf course. Jaeger has landed the top spot in my model, and he has become a mainstay in my top-ten this fall swing. El Cardonal is an even better fit for him than previous Fall swing courses. Over 50% of approach shots at El Cardonal are projected to come from over 175 yards, and Jaeger ranks 11th in proximity 175-200 yards and 14th in proximity from 200 yards plus. There are few players in this field more trustable with a mid to long iron in their hands. El Cardonal also projects to reward power, and Jaeger packs plenty of pop off the tee, ranking top-35 in this field in driving distance. In terms of scoring ability, Jaeger checks all of the boxes, ranking third in birdies or better gained, second in par five scoring, fifth in easy scoring conditions, and 14th on Paspalum golf courses. He’s already got a 15th and a 18th to his name at my most highly correlated comparative course, Vidanta Vallarta and is coming off a top-25 finish at the Sanderson Farms where he gained 3.4 strokes off the tee and 1.7 strokes on approach. Most importantly, he’ll be significantly lower owned than the other $10K options, who all carry a heftier price tag as well. I don’t know if this is the week where Jaeger finally breaks through at the PGA Tour level, but this is certainly the most advantageous of circumstances.

• Emiliano Grillo, $9,700 (Projected ownership: 11.0%): Emiliano Grillo is another player that has been kind to this column in the past. I thought we had an excellent buy low opportunity on him earlier this month at the Zozo Championship, and he delivered with a 10th place finish. Now Grillo travels to a golf course that should be an even better fit for his game than Narashino. The Argentine remains one of the absolute best mid to long iron players in this field, ranking third in proximity 150-175 yards and eight in proximity 175-200 yards. I have held previous concerns about Grillo in pure birdie-fests due to his lack of putting skill, but the recent Charles Schwab Championship winner has actually developed into an incredibly strong putter over the last six months. El Cardonal has absolutely massive greens, and Grillo actually ranks seventh in this entire field in approach putting, which measures the distance a player leaves themselves when lag putting. I have complete confidence that Grillo can keep up in a birdie-fest, and his track record on Paspalum is aspirational. The two-time PGA Tour winner finished fifth at Vidanta Vallarta this year, and he also has a sixth and a 21st to his name at the Corales Punta Cana Championship as well. While Hossler, Spaun, Svensson, Bhatia, and List all appear to be more popular options in the nines, Grillo remains the strongest course fit, and I’ll gladly take my chances on him in this spot.

• Davis Riley, $7,700 (Projected ownership: 8.3%): Full disclosure, I’ve had mixed results on Davis Riley. He’s a player I have not quite figured out. If he were to win twice this year and develop into a legitimate top-50 player, I would not be the least bit surprised. If he was to lose his Tour card, I also could not say that I would be shocked. I did hit Riley’s win at the Zurich Classic earlier this year, but that victory did not quite propel him to the heights I thought he was capable of, and I’ve been wrong about him plenty of times since. This specific spot should set up beautifully for the former Alabama standout, and my model has been indicating for weeks that he’s beginning to play some better golf than his results would indicate. We still have the opportunity to be early however. Riley is coming off a middling, but respectable finish at the Zozo, and prior to that, he finished 28th at the Shriners where he gained over four strokes ball-striking. Now the 26-year-old travels to Mexico, where he was last seen finishing fifth at Vidanta Vallarta. Riley has shown an affinity for wide open, easier golf courses that emphasize power off the tee and mid to long iron play. Though different agronomically, TPC Louisiana is not all that dissimilar from El Cardonal in the questions that it poses. Riley is sandwiched perfectly between popular options Cameron Champ and Callum Tarren, both players I like this week, but not at double the ownership of the former Zurich Classic winner.

• Greyson Sigg, $7,300 (Projected ownership: 5.1%): Frankly, Greyson Sigg is another player I’ve struggled to figure out. My numbers continue to suggest that he’s a better player than the market indicates, but he hasn’t quite accumulated the track record yet to back that up. Sigg has however established himself as a fairly consistent cut-maker and deserving middle of the road Tour player. I actually think he’s a lot better than many of the guys we are subjected to this week in his price range. The 28-year-old is coming off a 28th at the Shriners where he gained strokes in all four ball-striking categories, and he also has a recent finish at the Fortinet Championship where he gained over five strokes ball-striking. Now Sigg travels to a course that should fit his skill-set to a tee. He is one of the absolute best players in this field from 150 to 200 yards, ranking seventh in proximity 150-175 yards, and ninth in proximity 175-200 yards. The Georgia native is also a great lag putter with an impressive track record on Paspalum courses. Sigg has an 18th and 33rd at Vidanta Vallarta, and a 25th and a 9th at Corales Punta Cana. The low sevens is loaded with options I love this week, and Erik Van Rooyen, Will Gordon, Nate Lashley, Harry Hall, Brandon Wu, Peter Kuest, or Austin Eckroat easily could have been slotted in here as well. Let’s roll the dice with the best middle iron player of the bunch.

Chalk Report

• $10K: This range needs to be split into two sections: the big three at the top (Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala) and the two lesser owned options at the bottom (Stephan Jaeger, Lucas Glover). Aberg, Young, and Sahith will all come in north of 21%, while Jaeger and Glover will both be below 14.5%. There is a $500 dollar price difference and a 6.5% (at minimum) gap between the former and the latter, and I’m not totally sure it’s justified. Aberg, Young, and Theegala are better players, but on a golf course with an incredibly low tee to green difficulty, I’m struggling to pay the exorbitant price for the one of the three “elites.” Not all three are created equal. I have Aberg at 28%, Young at 21.5%, and Theegala at 23%. If forced to choose, I’d probably go with Theegala. I worry about the rust with Young, and if I’m going to put all my chips down with Aberg, I’d prefer to do it on a harder golf course that doesn’t leave the backdoor open for hot putters. At the bottom of this range, it is worth noting that Jaeger (14.5%) will certainly receive more love than Glover (10%), which I do believe is justified.

• $9K: This is an interesting range, chock full of players that I’m not sure completely deserve to be here. Let’s start with the popular options: Beau Hossler (15%), Akshay Bhatia (16%), and Luke List (19.5%). I can’t explain where this List ownership is coming from, and I’m not sure that I totally buy it either. I actually think Bhatia and List will flip by Wednesday evening. Bhatia is an incredibly popular selection on betting cards (for good reason), and I just haven’t seen the requisite List chatter for this number to make sure to me. Any reader knows my thoughts on Hossler, and I’d sooner choose death than buy in on his high point. If you are resisting Aberg, Young, or Theegala, and you want to play it safer in the nines, Akshay would be my clear choice. I, however, will be rolling the dice with the likes of Emiliano Grillo (11%), Thomas Detry (9%), and J.J. Spaun (13.5%). I’ve already shared my love for Grillo, and Detry is a better version of List at half the ownership. Spaun was incredibly kind to us at the Zozo Championship, but I’m a touch lower on him at this golf course. I still have no intention of hopping off now. I feel pretty neutral about Adam Svensson (14%) and Chris Kirk (8.5%). Both feel a tad over-priced.

• $8K: In a larger field event with three incredibly popular options at the top, we are once again left with a neglected $8K range, and as one can imagine, I’m fairly invested here. The only player that I have coming in over 12% is Davis Thompson. That’s going to be a no from me. Taylor Pendrith and Mark Hubbard will both come in around 10 to 12, and I have no problem with either. It’s a better golf course for Pendrith, but Hubbard is safer. I’m rarely ever a Justin Suh fan, but this would actually be a spot where I could get behind him. I have the former USC standout at 6%, and I’m starting to see some significant improvement in his long iron play. I’m always a sucker for a low-owned Matt Kuchar, and he has a sneaky strong resume on Paspalum courses. Chris Gotterup might be the real deal, but this feels like a rather expensive price to pay for a guy we haven’t seen up against PGA Tour competition since July. There are six guys in the single digits in this range, and I would recommend at least utilized one or two. Let’s rank in terms of preference:
  • Matt Kuchar (5.5%)
  • Justin Suh (5%)
  • Chris Gotterup (7%)
  • Andrew Putnam (3.5%)
  • Keith Mitchell (6%)
  • Lucas Herbert (4%)

• $7K: As one would expect, the $7K range is loaded and the Fall swing is never immune to group think. The players I have comfortably in the double digits are Cameron Champ (14.5%), Sam Ryder (11.5%), Callum Tarren (14%), and Brandon Wu (10%). I’ve got to admit, I can at least comprehend why these four players are popular. I’m on the record about my Champ feelings. He doesn’t love golf and gets very little out of his talent. With that being said, I could not think of a better golf course for him. I’m not going there at that number, but there are worse plays on the board. I wouldn’t be shocked if Wu sneaks up a little higher. The secret is out on the Paspalum King. That’s one to monitor as the day goes on. I don’t really have anything negative to say about Ryder or Tarren either. I slightly prefer Ryder, but both are sensible plays. A few other names that we could see sneak into the double digits include Chesson Hadley, Michael Kim, Doug Ghim, Vincent Whaley, and Peter Kuest.  I’m frustrated by the shocking amount of tourists this week on Kuest island, but I still think he’s safe in the eight or nine percent zone. Kim is always a yes for me, and I’ve been very impressed by Whaley recently too. A few other names I have some interest in include Nick Hardy, Erik Van Rooyen, Greyson Sigg, Austin Eckroat, Nate Lashley, Harry Hall, and Will Gordon. I don’t think we need to worry about ownership with any of them, but you never know in a content starved week.

• $6K: With a low $7K range loaded with great options, I’m not seeing a ton of love down here. Kelly Kraft (10%), Marty Dou (6%), Carl Yuan (7%), and Carson Young (8.5%) are the only four players that I have clearing the five percent threshold. I’m not really sure that I understand the Kraft, Dou, or Yuan love, but I think there’s something there with Young, and I’m going to keep playing him.