By Andy Lack

The 2023 Wyndham Championship Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’m encouraged to see the rain that I was expected on Thursday appears to have subsided, but Friday still looks like a bit of a wash. As late as yesterday evening, it looked like there would be a clear advantage for the AM/PM wave, as rain was expected in the forecast for Thursday afternoon. I would still give a slight edge to the AM/PM folks, as Friday might looks to be pretty dastardly. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen 40 mph wind gusts and rain during the years I spent living in North Carolina, but here we are. Friday morning still appears like objectively the worst time to be on the golf course, but the only reason that I am not going all in on an AM/PM stack is because it’s important to consider the possibility that we could see delays on Friday. Unfortunately, many of the players I feel very strongly about are in the PM/AM wave, and while I have made a few swaps at the bottom of my player pool to create a more even split, there’s still too much uncertainty to go all in on one side of the draw. I still would monitor this as the day progresses, with the mindset of seeing where you could pivot to include more AM/PM players.

Core Four

• Sungjae Im, $10,800 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 16.1%): I’ve had Sungjae Im penciled in for this spot for awhile, and while I wish he was coming in with better form, we’re still catching a nice ownership break based on the recent disappointing play. Sedgefield Country Club was built for Im, and he is following a Webb-esque plug and play regardless of form trajectory, with three top-10 finishes already in four appearances, including a runner-up last year. Im has gained a whopping six strokes ball-striking in all four of his appearances here, and there are no signs of slowing down. He’s the number one player in this field off the tee on shorter, positional golf courses. Im also ranks 17th in this field in opportunities gained, sixth in birdies or better gained, fourth overall on short, positional courses, and first on Bermuda tee to green courses over the last two years. With a sixth at TPC Sawgrass and a seventh at Harbour Town already this year, Im has been all over the leaderboard on these style of tests. While I had high hopes for him in Minnesota, Im still gained a stroke and a half off the tee and fell victim to a faulty putter. We’re catching a nice ownership break here on the player with the most trustable course history outside of Webb Simpson, and my numbers continue to suggest that he is not as far off from a victory as his results would indicate.

• Aaron Rai, $8,600 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 15.8%): I have been very vocal in my support of Aaron Rai this week. I feel as strongly that he is going to win this golf tournament than I have in awhile. I’m certainly not alone in my praise, but I don’t have qualms with the ownership number I am seeing. For what it’s worth, I would probably still play him this week if he was the highest owned player on the slate. Rai is coming off a 20th-place finish at the 3M Open where he gained strokes in all four major categories, and he now heads to a golf course that is an ideal fit for his game. Rai has quietly emerged as one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on the PGA Tour, and he ranks third in the entire field in driving accuracy percentage this season. Rai is a standout short to middle iron player as well, ranking sixth in this field in overall approach play, 14th in proximity 125-150 yards, and 14th in proximity 150-175 yards. It should not come as a surprise that he has gained over five strokes ball-striking in seven instances this season. This might be more of a point to make when advocating for an outright play on Rai, but he has shown on multiple occasions this season that he has the ball-striking chops to win at this level. He’s already done it against relatively strong fields on the DP World Tour too. Whether it’s this week or in the fall swing, the Rai win is coming soon, and when it comes, it’s going to be on a golf course where driving accuracy and short to middle iron play is emphasized. I hope my case for Rai isn’t convincing enough for him to catch any more late steam on Wednesday evening, but it’s difficult to contain my confidence in this one.

• Chris Kirk, $8,200 (PM/AM) (Projected ownership: 13.8%): I wouldn’t call Chris Kirk’s price and ownership this week insulting, but are we sure Denny McCarthy is a better player? Kirk remains a five-time PGA Tour winner, which includes a victory at the Honda Classic this season. My numbers suggest that he is the third best course fit in this entire field, and I have a difficult time identifying what players such as Stephan Jaeger, Ludvig Aberg, Byeoung Hun An, and Beau Hossler have done to be priced ahead of him. I firmly believe that Chris Kirk is the biggest mis-price on the board this week, and while he is certainly not sneaking up on anyone, his ownership is more than fair. I’ve been incredibly surprised to see that he is not featured on more betting cards as well. 50/1 is a damn good number in this field on a player that actually wins. Not only does he win, but Sedgefield is perfect course fit for his game. Kirk is one of the more accurate drivers of the ball in this field, and he particularly excels off the tee on shorter, positional golf courses. He’s a strong short to middle iron player, and he’s got one of the best short games in this field. In terms of scoring, Kirk ranks fourth in this field in opportunities gained, 22nd in birdies or better gained, 15th on short, positional courses, and ninth on Bermuda courses. We may be catching a bit of a price break because Kirk has never truly popped at this golf course, but he has made six of seven cuts, with a bunch of middling finishes. It’s only a matter of time before he finds his way onto the first page of the leaderboard at Sedgefield, and his three top-fives and a win at Sea Island serve as a keen predictor. My only qualm is that I wish he was in the “better” wave, but it’s going to take a lot more than the potential for weather to get me off Kirk at this price and in this spot.

• Brandon Wu, $7,200 (AM/PM) (Projected ownership: 3.7%): I have long been an admirer of Brandon Wu’s game since his days of kicking my butt in high school. I followed his career at Stanford, which was decorated as well, and I had little doubt that his adjustment to the PGA Tour would be smooth. While he has not yet found the winner’s circle at this level, I truly believe it’s been only a matter of time. With top-three finishes at both the AT & T Pebble Beach National and the Mexico Open, he’s done a lot more contending already this year than many of his similarly priced peers. Wu is coming off a performance at the 3M Open where he gained 2.6 strokes off the tee and 2.8 strokes on approach. Unfortunately he could not get the putter to cooperate, but that is most certainly why we have been gifted such an appetizing price and low ownership. Sedgefield is a perfect fit for Wu’s game, and it should not come as a surprise that he finished eighth here last year in his first appearance, gaining strokes in all four major categories. Wu is a rock solid iron player, who particularly excels from 125 to 200 yards, and even more importantly, he consistently drives the ball in play. The formula of precision off the tee and strong short to middle iron play has proven to pay dividends at Sedgefield, and it does not hurt that Wu is a wonderful lag putter as well. Top-20s this season at Oakdale and TPC Sawgrass display his comfortability on shorter, positional golf courses, and his statistical profile backs this up even further. I have high hopes for Brandon Wu, both this week and in the future.

Chalk Report 

• $10K: Four players populate the $10K range this week with varying degrees of popularity. I currently have Russell Henley leading the charge at a whopping 26.5%, which is a tad surprising to me given the fact that he is the objectively worst player of this bunch. It’s certainly an intriguing course fit, and Henley will likely be a popular selection at the Wyndham for as long as he’s upright. Being the highest owned player on the slate at this price, in average form at best, still feels a bit irresponsible to me. Hideki Matsuyama is next up a robust 24%, another number that I frankly thought would be a touch lower given his disappointing weekend in Minnesota. I have extremely high hopes for Matsuyama in Greensboro, and I bet him to win at 20/1, but he’s a harder DraftKings click for me than a 16% Sungjae Im. Hideki should be higher owned than Sungjae this week, and probably higher priced as well, but I’m not sure I was expecting an eight percentage point gap. As of now, I’m playing both, but if Hideki continues to creep closer to Henley this afternoon, I’ll be forced to reconsider. I have Sam Burns coming in even with Sungjae at 16% as well, and while I do prefer Im in a vacuum, I haven’t put any red ink over Burns either given the gap between him and Hideki/Henley.

• $9K: This is a smaller $9K range than we are used to on most weeks, and ownership seems to be congregating around J.T. Poston and Si Woo Kim. I have Poston coming in at 19.5%, and Kim at 20%. I can’t say that this is much of a shock, as Poston is a former champion who is playing some great golf right now. Kim has similarly tremendous history at this event too. I continue to believe that Ludvig is currently the most over-valued player in golf. It is beyond me how he is still priced in the $9K range. Just so people understand how ludicrous this continues to be, Ludvig and Cameron Davis were the same price last week. Ludvig finishes T64 and Davis finishes in the top-10, and now Ludvig is $500 more expensive than Davis on a course he has never played before (Davis actually has decent course history here too!) I’d place Adam Scott and Shane Lowry both in the same category as a major champions who have been solid on this golf course, but have not done a whole lot of contending this year. I think both will come in between 13 and 16%, with Lowry on the higher end. I’ve currently got Justin Thomas at 9.5%, the lowest in the range. I firmly believe that he will make the cut this week based on sheer will-power, but I don’t have interest in spending a great deal of energy endorsing him at this stage.

• $8K: I’m seeing a LOT more ownership in this range than I am typically used to. Stephan Jaeger (14.5%), Cameron Davis (17.5%), Denny McCarthy (21%), Aaron Rai (16%), Byeong Hun An (11.5%), Chris Kirk (14%), Alex Smalley (16.5%), and Adam Hadwin (10.5%), will all be in the double digits. I’m not entirely sure how this is possible, but I would imagine that folks are going fairly balanced this week. I would guess that a popular build will be starting with Henley or Hideki, skipping the $9K range, and then rolling with multiple choices in the eights. I’m not playing Denny or Davis this week, but I would have expected both of them to be in the low $9K range. As previously mentioned, I cannot understand for the life of me why either of them are priced lower than Ludvig Aberg. My preferred options in this range are the aforementioned Aaron Rai and Chris Kirk, and I’m pretty darn close on Adam Hadwin as well. The Alex Smalley thing is getting a bit irresponsible at this point. Yes, this is a comfortable geographic spot for him, but this remains a decent opportunity to fade some groupthink. He’s all the way down to 35/1 in the betting market! Chris Kirk is still a far better player than Alex Smalley, and I think the five-time PGA Tour winner deserves a lot more respect than he is currently receiving this week. I’m definitely cool with Jaeger, and I probably have even less interest in Taylor Moore and Beau Hossler, even though they will both be in the high single digits. I have not once in my life played Creepy Beau, and I have no interest in starting on a week when he is $8.3K, solely due to one extremely low Sunday round.

• $7K: I can’t say that there is anything ghastly about the $7K range this week. I do not have a single player above 15%, as folks seem to have their guards up more on the heels of Lucas Glover and Austin Eckroat chalk bombs. The only player that I can definitively say will be in the double digits is Eric Cole at 12%. There is still a large groups of players that should fall somewhere between eight and 12%, which includes Billy Horschel, Mark Hubbard, Lucas Glover, Adam Svensson, Brendon Todd, and Doug Ghim. Horschel, Svensson, and Todd are likely a go for me, while I am less encouraged by the others. I want to use this opportunity to also highlight my love for Matt Kuchar, who just missed out on my core four. I’m pretty enamored by the low sevens in general, and feel fairly confident in Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Ben Griffin as well. I actually like this spot for Eckroat far more than I did last week, and I’m tentatively intrigued by a last minute Ryder Cup push from Alex Noren as well.

• $6K: Nothing really to discuss down here this week. Dylan Wu (not the Wu you want to be playing this week) is the only $6K player that I currently have above five percent, and that might even be a touch ambitious of a projection. Carson Young and Zac Blair might get a little more love than their similarly priced peers, but I have both in the four percent zone. Choose your own adventure down here!