By Andy Lack

The 2023 Zozo Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS, and is the type of finding small edge that over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I’ll begin with a caveat that Japan does not provide a super forecast for us, but this feels like the most wind impacted event we have seen this Fall swing. Friday mid-morning afternoon looks rather spicy, and I would absolutely recommend jamming in as many early morning Friday players if possible. Since this is a limited field, and players are already going out in threesomes. There is no real wave split. Players are teeing off in succession between 8:45 and 11:00 AM. However, the weather starts to get really problematic around noon, so the difference in teeing off at 8:45 and 11:00 could mean saving over half of your round before the wind really kicks up. I have a smaller pool this week, but I am pretty much going full fade on any player teeing off after 10:00 AM. The edge may prove to be minimal, but this feels like a worthy risk to take.

Core Four

• Rickie Fowler, $10,000 (9:29 AM on Friday): I have always maintained that PGA DFS is a lot like the stock market, and it’s important to be cognizant of when we are entering the market on a certain players. Rickie Fowler’s stock is the lowest it has been in probably a year, since his resurgence began non-coincidentally with a runner-up finish at this very tournament in 2022. He is coming off a Ryder Cup where he was identified by Zach Johnson as the weakest link, and subsequently benched. I’m not here to carry water for Fowler’s Ryder Cup performance, but for what it’s worth, he was not the U.S.’s weakest link (Jordan Spieth was) and a lot of his struggles were due to an incredibly faulty putter. Now Fowler returns to a golf course where he finished runner-up last year at lower ownership than any of his similarly priced peers. Had it not been for two match play rounds at Marco Simone on a golf course that was not a particularly great fit for his game, I have to believe the sentiment on Fowler this week coming off a runner-up finish here would be far different. The six-time PGA Tour winner’s fit on this golf course makes all the sense in the world. He does an adequate job of keeping the ball in play off the tee, and he is an excellent overall iron player with an elite short game who has had a tremendous amount of success on Bent-grass greens. The strongest feather in his cap this week is that he tees off a full hour earlier than both Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele on Friday morning and thus should have some extra breathing room before the wind really kicks up in the afternoon. PGA DFS 101 is understanding when to capitalize on depressed assets. This is an easy one.

• Hideki Matsuyama, $9,800 (9:29 AM on Friday): If you made me guess on Sunday night, I would have predicted that Hideki Matsuyama would be the second or third favorite and overwhelming chalk this week. Why he is not remains bewildering to me. This is obviously Matsuyama’s Super Bowl, and he will have the home crowd behind him. A mistake I made two years ago was believing the inherent pressure of delivering for his home fans would be a detriment to his performance, as the opposite came to the fruition. For what it’s worth, Japanese golf fans are far more respectful than American or European fans. Golf holds a different place in Japanese culture than it does in America, and while Matsuyama would like to win this event more than any non-major, his presence alone is more than enough to cheer about. Do I believe a comfortability playing in a completely different time zone without any language barrier is an asset? Absolutely. Matsuyama knows where he is going to sleep. He knows where he is going to eat, and he has a ton of excellent experience at this golf course, with a second place finish in 2019 to go along with his win in 2021. Whether Narashino was in Japan or not, I would love his fit on this specific style of golf course. Bent-grass is his best putting surface, he’s one of the best mid to long iron players in this field, and he’s gained over a stroke and a half per round at Chapultepec, Colonial, and Harding Park, three worthy comparative courses. The fact that he is playing with Fowler over an hour prior to Morikawa and Schauffele is an added bonus, as I truly do believe that Friday afternoon will be brutal. The modest interest level on Matsuyama this week remains baffling to me, and I will be glad to capitalize.

• J.J. Spaun, $7,900 (9:07 AM on Friday): J.J. Spaun will always hold a special place in my heart after he delivered me the biggest outright win of my golf betting career at the 2022 Valero Texas Open. While Spaun has yet to find similar magic since, he is certainly trending in the right direction. The 33-year-old is coming off a 46th-place finish at the Shriners where he gained 2.6 strokes on approach and 4.6 strokes around the green, and he has now gained over 2.5 strokes ball-striking in both starts this Fall swing. Now he returns to a golf course where he put up a respectable 25th-place finish last year, and he is coming in with negligible ownership and an early Friday morning tee time. Spaun ranks above average in this field in overall approach play, mid to long iron play, sand save percentage, overall off the tee play, and good drive percentage. There’s nothing particularly flashy about his game, but Spaun continues to outperform his price on a consistent basis, and he always seems to come in under the radar. My numbers suggest that Spaun is the most trustworthy course fit out of any player in the $7K range, and his modest ownership is simply a bonus.

• Michael Kim, $7,500 (9:29 AM): This is the second week in a row that I have been high on Twitter sensation Michael Kim, and his gaudy screen time hours on that godforsaken app do not seem to be affecting his performance. Kim is coming off an 18th-place finish at the Shriners where he gained 4.4 strokes on approach and five strokes putting. While this will be his first appearance at this golf course, Kim did finish sixth at Colonial this year, another narrow, tree-lined Bent-grass course with smaller greens. I love how his style of play fits at Narashino. The former University of California standout has mentioned how the tendinitis in his wrist is finally going away, and he’s beginning to feel more and more comfortable over the golf ball. Kim’s approach play certainly reflects that, and there are few players in this price range that I trust more with a long iron in their hands. Kim blends the unique combination at this price point of above average driving and long iron play, and he is one of the best bunker players in this field as well. My largest concern entering the week has been his putter, but he appears to have truly found a groove last week in Las Vegas. Like Spaun, Kim is another $7K player that deserves far more recognition than his similarly priced peers. This is an ideal week to take advantage of the groupthink surrounding players such as Sam Ryder, Cameron Champ, and Joel Dahmen. I expect Kim to outperform them all, and hopefully share the story with us via his beloved social media.

Chalk Report

• $10K: As expected Xander Schauffele will be receiving the lion share of ownership in this range. I have him coming in at a robust 29.5%. I’m very bullish on Xander’s chances this week, and I have an outright ticket on him to win. With that being said, the combination of the high ownership and late tee time on Friday morning makes him a rather sensible fade for DraftKings purposes. Sungjae Im is next up at around 22.5%, which is one of the most confusing numbers to me on the board. I cannot understand for the life of me this week why Im is both more expensive and higher owned than Hideki Matsuyama. That is beyond non-sensical to me. Easy pass on Sungjae. Collin Morikawa and Rickie Fowler are both intriguing at palatable ownership numbers. I have Morikawa in the 17% range and Fowler at 14.5%. I’m going to roll with Fowler in this spot, but I have nothing negative to say about a play on Collin.

• $9K: In a smaller field this week, all six of the players in this range I have coming in higher than 15%. It’s challenging to find much leverage above $9K this week as ownership is very well evenly dispersed. I’ll run through all six options with their corresponding ownership number, ranked by preference:
  • Hideki Matsuyama, $9,800 (19%)
  • Adam Scott, $9,300 (18%)
  • Cameron Davis, $9,500 (22%)
  • Sahith Theegala, $9,000 (17%)
  • Keegan Bradley, $9,200 (18%)
  • Min Woo Lee, $9,100 (16.5%)

My interest in Hideki is already well documented, so I’ll use this opportunity to give a shout to Adam Scott, who I believe is a very sensible secondary option in this range. He’s a touch more expensive than I would have expected, but I really like this golf course for his skill-set. Hard pass for me on the Min Woo Mania this week. I understand it, but will not be participating. Cameron Davis is playing some excellent golf right now, but as a season ticket holder to the Davis experience, these are the weeks he lets you down the hardest. Sahith and Keegan are both interesting. I slightly prefer Keegan’s course fit, but both played well here last year, and I have more faith  in Sahith’s form.

• $8K: The $8K range certainly provides ownership discrepancies that were more challenging to find in the nines and tens. Eric Cole leads the charge this week at 20.5%. I’m not sure I can really argue it. I would have expected Cole to land himself a spot in the low nines this week in exchange for Adam Scott. 20% is a hefty price to pay, but I do believe his price is warranted. Beau Hossler, Adam Schenk, and Adam Svensson will all be in the 16% zone. Schenk and Svensson are absolutely still playable. Hossler is not (spoiler alert: he never is.) Once we get past the big four of Cole, Hossler, Schenk, and Svensson, Alex Noren and Aaron Rai will be in the low double digits. Neither will end up making the cut for me, but both do make adequate sense on paper. Thomas Detry, Nicolai Hojgaard, Emiliano Grillo, Vincent Norrman, and Keith Mitchell will all be in the single digits. Of this group, Grillo and Norrman are my favorite.

• $7K: As expected with a smaller field, there’s some rather unappetizing groupthink in the sevens, mainly in the form of Cameron Champ. I have never been a Champ guy. I have very little respect for his game. Word on Tour is that he doesn’t love it and hates to practice. He is firmly in the Beau Hossler zone of “Never Under Any Circumstances.” I think you’re a total fish for playing him at this ownership. I thought that Joel Dahmen would be the highest owned player in this range on Monday, but he seems to be falling into the category of “Everyone Thinks Everyone Is Playing Him, But Few People Actually Do.” I think a modest 10-12% for Dahmen feels about right. Still a hard pass for me, but he will not be the overwhelming chalk that I had originally projected. Sam Ryder, Callum Tarren, Mark Hubbard, and Ryo Hisatsune will all also be in the eight to 12% zone. I thought we would see more of a flop-lag on Hubbard, but the stats still love him. He is the only player in that group that I would feel comfortable rolling with. A few lower owned players I am a fan of include Michael Kim, Austin Eckroat, Sam Stevens, and Nate Lashley.

• $6K: In a limited field, there are absolutely a few players that are going to receive some love in this range. K.H. Lee is an objective mis-price, and while I currently have him in the high single digits, I would not be shocked if he caught some late Wednesday morning steam. Coming off two strong performances already this Fall swing, Lee should undeniably be in the low to mid sevens. Matthew NeSmith, Keita Nakajima, and Mackenzie Hughes will all be garnering some attention as well. I have all three coming in around six to eight percent.  My personal favorite down here is Justin Lower, probably the best pure Bent-grass putter in this entire field. If you’re looking for a punt play with tremendous upside to putt his way into contention, Lower is your man.