By Andy Lack

The 2023 Zurich Classic Final Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership 

The biggest thing I have realized from the fact that all of my content either comes out so early in the week is that I haven’t found a way to be able to share or synthesize my final DFS thoughts. Often on my Sunday show, I will discuss a player that I love from a handicapping perspective, and yet I will have zero percent of him in my lineups come Wednesday night. For example, the combination of last week’s weather madness and ownership took me off multiple players that I was high on from a handicapping standpoint. In my opinion, there’s a huge difference between a sensible outright wager, and a good DFS play, and I see far too many people simply plug the players they bet into their DraftKings lineups. Betting and DFS are two completely different games, and I go about my process for each completely differently. This is how Rick and I conceived of this Wednesday article, “Andy’s Final DFS Thoughts: Weather, Core, Ownership.” I wanted a platform where I could wait until the end of the week, and synthesize all the information at my disposal: price, ownership, and weather.

With the rest of my content all being recorded by Tuesday morning, I did not feel like I was able to give adequate DFS advice. For example, there’s no real point in talking about the weather in a podcast recorded on the previous Sunday or Monday. I can make guesses on what the weather will look like, but it often changes various times over the course of the next three days. Also, weather MATTERS. In four tournaments last year, the WM Phoenix Open, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the U.S. Open, and the Open Championship, one side of the draw saw at least a one stroke advantage. More dramatically at the PLAYERS Championship, Scottish Open, the PGA Championship, and the Rocket Mortgage, one side of the draw saw at over a two stroke advantage. Already this season, the Houston Open featured a 2.5 stroke wave advantage! As soon as we flipped the calendar to January, weather played a massive role in the Sony Open as well. This may not sound like much, but it’s finding small edges like this over time that will make you a winning DFS player.

Before we dive in, I should also mention: the most important part of DFS is figuring out how you like to play and sticking to it (for at least a large enough sample size before you change up your process.) I am not a 150 lineup guy, or even a 50 lineup guy. I play 15-30 lineups every week, and stick to a player pool between 15-20 players. I play in the same contests every single week, and I largely stick to the 20-Max and all of the Single Entries. I will throw a few listener leagues in too to support my friends.

I play pretty aggressively in the sense that I do not play a lot of chalk (sometimes as much I should). A lineup that I enter into a contest will never combine to have over a 75% ownership threshold based on my ownership projections. I mention all of this to say, this has just been what has worked for me. There are a ton of different ways to succeed at this, but I think it’s important to have context for how I play. As always, hit me up in the slack channel with any questions. I am always happy to talk shop. Alright, without further ado, let’s dive in.

Weather

I certainly do not see much of an advantage in either direction on Thursday, but I will say the Friday afternoon pairings may be forced to deal with a bit of a rain. Still, if you are legitimately playing a weather edge at the Zurich Classic, god bless you. An average of around 0.5 inches is a lot of rain, so there’s just as good of a chance that the latter part of Friday afternoon gets rained out and the Friday afternoon wave gets to finish their round on a soft and score-able golf course on Saturday morning.

Core Four

• Sungjae Im & Keith Mitchell, $10,400 (Projected ownership: 15.5%): When considering ownership, I actually believe that this duo of Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell presents the best DraftKings option at the top of the board. Cantlay and Schauffele are a tough team to fade, but if by some chance they finish T14, there’s potential for us to have a leg up on over a third of the field. I made a similar argument about fading Jon Rahm at 35% at the Mexico Open, and even though in that isolated situation it was the wrong call, the mindset behind it has saved me a ton of money long term. Golf is an incredibly high variance sport, potentially more-so than any other, so when ownership conglomerates around one pairing, always consider the possibility of the chance that something can go wrong. To me, Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell are an incredibly worthy pairing that I believe possess a legitimate chance to win this event. Im is playing some of the best golf of his career right now, is coming off a seventh-place finish at the Heritage where he felt the heat of contention and was masterful from tee to green. His Heritage performance quietly marked his sixth top-25 finish in a row. While Keith Mitchell may not have the pedigree of Im, he is a player that I have been high on as a breakthrough candidate all season due to the fact that he is a top-ten driver of the ball in the world over a fairly large sample size. Mitchell is a Southern guy from the University of Georgia who makes an absolute ton of birdies and should be an absolutely ideal fit for this golf course.

• Taylor Moore & Matthew NeSmith, $8,700 (Projected ownership: 8.9%): I’m actually surprised this duo is getting slept on. Taylor Moore has obviously garnered some new pedigree with a victory at the Valspar Championship over the likes of Jordan Spieth and Tommy Fleetwood down the stretch, and Matthew NeSmith has always been a DFS darling due to his incredibly strong iron play. Moore has actually followed up his Valspar win strongly with a top-40 finish at the Masters as a debutant and an 11th-place finish at the Heritage, and while NeSmith’s current form has been less than inspiring, I still have enough belief in his approach play to serve as a nice compliment to Moore’s off the tee and putting prowess.

• Davis Riley & Nick Hardy, $8,600 (Projected ownership: 13.7%): The tandem of Davis Riley and Nick Hardy really jumped out to me in my stat modeling and I am overjoyed to find them at a reasonable price and ownership number. This is a new pairing, but Riley finished fourth in this event last year alongside Will Zalatoris, and Hardy finished 24th in his own right alongside Curtis Thompson. I am undeterred by their missed cuts at the Heritage, as Riley still gained nearly six strokes on approach, and Hardy gained in both ball-striking categories. My numbers actually suggest that this is the fourth most formidable pairing in the field and course fit for TPC Louisiana. Riley is one of the absolute best in the field at generating birdie opportunities, and a great long iron player as well. Hardy can hold his own in the birdie making department as well and also possesses strong iron play. I actually like pairing players together that possess similar skill-sets and I believe Riley and Hardy should compliment each other incredibly well this week. This is likely my favorite bet and DraftKings play on the board.

• Harry Hall & Akshay Bhatia, $7,600 (Projected ownership: 7.2%): Just going to roll with the numbers on this one and take my chances on a pairing with a ton of birdie making upside. Hall and Bhatia are two younger players with their best golf likely ahead of them, but Hall has already made some noise with a seventh-place finish in Puerto Rico and a 13th place finish at the Corales Punta Cana already this season. He makes a ton of birdies because he has a ton of putting upside, which should serve him well in this format. Bhatia actually leaves me feeling more excited about his future despite less PGA Tour experience. The 21-year-old has already established ball-striking chops, ranking top-20 in this field in strokes gained approach and birdies or better gained. I see far more of a path to a high end finish for this duo than most other pairings in the $7K range.

Chalk Report

• $10K: Much to absolutely no one’s surprise, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele lead the way in terms of ownership by a healthy margin. At minimum, one third of the field will be starting their lineups with the defending champions. I would not be the least bit surprised to wake up on Thursday morning and see their number closer to 40% either. To be honest, I don’t really have to think much about whether or not to play them. My numbers are never going to suggest that the probability of them winning is equal to the payoff of them potentially finishing outside of the top-10. After Cantlay and Xander, Max Homa and Collin Morikawa are unsurprisingly the second most popular duo, and should clear the 20% threshold. I would be far more inclined to take my chances on Homa and Morikawa however though, as there is still a chance that they barely reach half the ownership of Cantlay and Xander. After that, Sungjae Im and Keith Mitchell, as well as Sahith Theegala and Justin Suh are not the caliber of pairings of the two aforementioned duos at the top, but both reasonable ownership and upside. I have Sungjae and Mitchell coming in around 16%, and Theegala and Suh coming in around 18%.

• $9K: There are some interesting options in the $9K range, and I would actually argue that DraftKings really screwed up some of the pricing this week. Although they did not make my core four, I will be playing Billy Horschel and Sam Burns, and I am still confused how they are not the third highest priced teams after contending the past two years and arguably possessing the fifth and seventh best players in the field. There is no universe where they should be cheaper than Sahith and Suh at similar ownership, and I think the Sahith/Suh duo is an objectively poor play given the cheaper options. Burns and Horschel should come in at a modest 18%, in the same zone as Si Woo Kim and Tom Kim, who I am slightly less excited about. After that, my guess would be that Kurt Kitayama and Taylor Montgomery come in next at around 15%, and leverage can certainly be had with Wyndham Clark and Beau Hossler, J.J. Spaun and Hayden Buckley, and David Lipsky and Aaron Rai, who can all be found hovering between 9 and 15%.

• $8K: The $8K range is often a dead zone, and there are certainly a ton of options in here that can be utilized to build unique lineups. In terms of the teams that are garnering the most popularity, Joel Dahmen and Denny McCarthy, Tom Hoge and Harris English, Davis Riley and Nick Hardy, Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin, Doc Redman and Sam Ryder, Matt and Alex Fitzpatrick, and Chesson Hadley and Ben Martin all should come in between 10 and 16%. Of those groups, Riley and Hardy and Taylor and Hadwin would certainly be my preference. In terms of the groups below 10%, Taylor Moore and Matthew NeSmith really stick out to me as an appealing option, but Brendon Todd and Patton Kizzire, Lee Hodges and Robby Shelton, and Brandon Wu and Joseph Bramlett should all find themselves in the high single digits as well.

• $7K: There are a couple teams in the $7K range garnering a fair amount of popularity. Thorbjorn Olsen and Nicolai Hojgaard have certainly emerged as a sexy pick given that both are young talents, hit the ball a long way and possess some upside. I have absolutely zero interest at 16%. Victor Perez and Thomas Detry should also catch some ownership for similar reasons. Detry is always a popular option and Perez does possess some pedigree as well. Ben Griffin and Ryan Gerard are also an intriguing group that won’t be sneaking up on anyone. I have both Perez and Detry and Griffin and Gerard both in the 15% zone as well. Byeong Hun An and S.H. Kim are the wildcard for me. Projection sites are all over the map with this one, but I feel fairly confident that somewhere between 11 and 16% sounds about right. For some reason, Edoardo Molinari and Luke Donald are catching a bit of steam as well, which is inexplicable to me. A few lower owned options I like include Harry Hall and Akshay Bhatia, Trey Mullinax and Scott Stallings, Matt Wallace and Callum Shinkwin, and Ben Taylor and Callum Tarren.

• $6K: As usual, there’s nothing really to worry about down here in terms of ownership. There’s a chance that Samuel Stevens and Max McGreevy could cross 10%, but even that would surprise me. Other teams that appear to be garnering more attention than their peers include Kevin Roy and Brent Grant, Chris Stroud and William McGirt, and Cameron Percy and Greg Chalmers. None will cross 8% however.