Articles · Austin Championship preview

2026 Austin Championship Picks: Recent Form Rules at a Brand-New Course

By Rick Gehman · Published November 9, 2026 · 6 min read

Quick answer

With no course history at Fazio Canyons, recent form is the best guide. Doug Ghim is rolling with a runner-up in Utah, T6 in Mexico, and T17 at the Baycurrent Classic. My custom model for the week ranks Blades Brown first, followed by Doug Ghim, Alvaro Ortiz, Ben Kohles, Seamus Power, Trace Crowe and Cole Sherwood.

Key takeaways

Fazio Canyons is a brand-new PGA Tour venue with zero course history data. It's a Tom Fazio design from 1999 with recent renovations.
About 75-80% of this field played last week at El Cardonal, so form is fresh and measurable.
The course has tree-lined fairways and strategic doglegs, so accuracy off the tee should matter more than raw distance.
Jackson Koivun is the lone player above $10,000 after Ben James and Michael Kim withdrew.

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Fazio Canyons course preview

This is the first time the PGA Tour has played the Fazio Canyons course at Omni Barton Creek Resort. The Tom Fazio design opened in 1999 and has been recently renovated, but we have zero ShotLink data to work with.

Looking at satellite imagery, this is a tree-lined course with several strategic doglegs. There are a handful of holes where the fairway runs out or a creek cuts through, so you can't just bomb it without consequences. I don't see a massive advantage for length here compared to most weeks.

The course plays to a traditional par 72 with four par-3s and four par-5s. The two par-5s on the back nine look very getable, and the closing stretch from hole 14 onward should produce fireworks. There's water on 15, a short par-3 at 17 with some volatility, and an 18th that guys can reach in two but with a creek running up to the green.

With no data, I'm leaning on recent form, particularly the last 24 rounds, and favoring players who are accurate off the tee. When you go to a new course, recent form does tend to correlate a tick stronger with results.

$10,000 and up

Jackson Koivun (DraftKings $10,400)

With Ben James and Michael Kim out, Koivun is the only player in the $10,000 range. He finished T21 at El Cardonal last week, gaining strokes in all four categories. He started slow with a 72 in round one but improved his position over the final three rounds.

The 3M Open winner ranks second in this field in strokes gained total over the last 12 months and second in driving accuracy at 76.8%. That combination of ball-striking and accuracy looks good for a course with strategic doglegs.

$9,000 range

Blades Brown (DraftKings $9,900)

Brown just won at El Cardonal, gaining +9.00 strokes putting and +4.15 off the tee on his way to a four-round total of +13.66. He's 19 years old and has arrived. The question is whether he plays this week or takes it off to celebrate.

If he tees it up, he's the top player in my custom model. He ranks first in this field in strokes gained total over the last 12 months at +1.38 per round. He's above average in every category.

Doug Ghim (DraftKings $9,800)

Ghim has been rolling. His recent run: a runner-up in Utah, T6 in Mexico, T17 at the Baycurrent Classic.

He's a career tee-to-green player who has finally found a consistent putter. He's made six straight top-20s. Has he ever won a tournament? No. Does that worry me? A little. But if there was a time for old Dougster to get it done, this feels like the spot.

Andrew Novak (DraftKings $9,600)

Novak won in Mexico two weeks ago, gaining +16.44 strokes total including +8.18 putting. His accuracy off the tee worries me a little at a tree-lined course, but he drove it well in his win.

Chris Kirk (DraftKings $9,400)

Kirk led El Cardonal after round one with +6.58 strokes gained, then made too many big numbers the rest of the way. He made two doubles on Friday, three bogeys on Saturday, and a bogey and a double on Sunday. He still finished T12, which tells you how good his iron play was: he gained +7.99 strokes on approach.

His putter has heated up over his last two starts. When he putts, he's a game-changer. He just needs to keep the crooked numbers off the board.

Brian Harman (DraftKings $9,300)

Harman had two months off from the FedEx in Memphis to the Baycurrent Classic, and he finished fourth in Japan while gaining +7.20 strokes total. That result flew under the radar. He's historically an accurate driver, and at a course where I don't think you need to bomb it, this feels like a good spot.

$8,000 range

Seamus Power (DraftKings $8,900)

I cannot say enough about Seamus Power this fall. He lost a playoff to Austin Smotherman in Bermuda and finished T8 last week at El Cardonal.

His fall finishes are strong: T7 in Asheville, T21 in Utah, second in Bermuda, and T8 last week. Last week he made the cut on the number, then gained +5.31 strokes on Saturday and +2.69 on Sunday to backdoor a T8. I'm clicking his name everywhere.

Kris Ventura (DraftKings $8,400)

Ventura's been quiet but solid. He's made five of six cuts in the fall, including a runner-up at the Mexico Open where he gained +11.44 strokes total. He finished T50 last week, which wasn't great, but the underlying numbers were fine. He's long and accurate off the tee, and if his putter cooperates like it has over his last three starts, he's a contender.

David Ford (DraftKings $8,300)

Ford finished fifth at El Cardonal, gaining +6.14 strokes off the tee and +2.64 on approach. He's not just a bomber; he ranks 20th in this field in driving accuracy. His two best finishes of the year, a third in Utah and a fifth last week, have come in his last four starts. The 24-year-old is finding it.

$7,000 range

Trace Crowe (DraftKings $7,700)

Crowe ranks first in this field in birdies per round. He finished T50 last week, losing 3.53 strokes putting after gaining +7.69 putting the week before in Mexico. That volatility is part of his range. He's also an accurate driver, and this setup should suit him.

Neal Shipley (DraftKings $7,600)

Shipley finished 74th last week after losing 5.28 strokes putting and 5.76 on approach. That's in his range of outcomes. He's young and volatile. But he's long off the tee, accurate, and his four fall finishes before that were T3 in Asheville, T10 in Utah, T34 in Bermuda and T16 in Mexico.

Alvaro Ortiz (DraftKings $7,300)

Ortiz is rolling. He won the Simmons Bank Open on the Korn Ferry Tour in September, gaining +14.9 strokes putting. He finished T9 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, T34 in Mexico, and then T6 at El Cardonal where he gained +6.61 around the green. He's more accurate than he is long, and the metrics don't always model well, but he keeps getting it done.

$6,000 range

Cole Sherwood (DraftKings $6,800)

Sherwood's profile looks a lot like Alvaro Ortiz. He won on the Korn Ferry Tour in May and finished T6 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a couple weeks ago, gaining +8.20 strokes total. He's elite off the tee on the Korn Ferry Tour, volatile on approach, and capable of putting well. Another 24-year-old from Dallas who's crushing it. He made my top-10 custom model.

Kensei Hirata (DraftKings $6,500)

Hirata finished fourth at El Cardonal and T11 in Mexico. Over those 11 rounds, he's gained more than a stroke per round on approach and nearly a stroke per round putting. That's completely different from the rest of his year. Something clicked.

He's 296 yards off the tee but 70% in accuracy, which gives him a DNA boost at a course where accuracy should matter. At $6,500, he's one of the more interesting value plays of the week.

Isaiah Salinda (DraftKings $6,900)

Salinda alternates between making the cut and missing it. T11 in Bermuda, missed cut in Mexico, T18 at El Cardonal. He gained +3.73 putting last week after losing 5.09 the week before. That's his range. He's long off the tee at 310 yards. At this price, I'll take the volatility.

My Austin Championship custom model

The model leans heavily on recent form: strokes gained total over the last 24 rounds, birdie or better gained over the last 50, bogey avoidance over the last 50, bonus putting over the last 36, and par-72 performance over the last 100 rounds. With no course history data, this is how I'm building a picture.

It's saved as "2026 Austin Champ" under Rick's Models in the Custom Model tool. The top 10:

Frequently asked questions

Where is the 2026 Austin Championship played?

At the Fazio Canyons course at Omni Barton Creek Resort in Austin, Texas. It's a Tom Fazio design from 1999 with recent renovations. This is the first time the PGA Tour has played this course.

Who is the favorite at the 2026 Austin Championship?

Jackson Koivun is the highest-priced player on DraftKings at $10,400 after Ben James and Michael Kim withdrew. Koivun won the 3M Open earlier this year.

What skill matters most at Fazio Canyons?

With no course history, it's hard to say definitively. Based on satellite imagery, accuracy off the tee should matter more than raw distance because of tree-lined fairways and strategic doglegs. Recent form is the best guide at a new venue.

Who is Rick Gehman's pick to win the 2026 Austin Championship?

Doug Ghim is my top play. He's rolling with a runner-up in Utah, T6 in Mexico, and T17 at the Baycurrent Classic. If Blades Brown plays, he'll also be at the top of my card.

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